SoO Abrogation May Not be Enough to Douse Manipur: Here's Why

Amid the ongoing crisis in Manipur, the demand for abrogating the suspension of operations, commonly known as the SoO, between the government and the Kuki-Zo rebel groups has been growing from the Meitei civil society in the Imphal valley.

The demand has become even louder since the violence erupted in May 2023. Meiteis have demanded the government stop its SoO pact with the groups. Arambai Tengol, one of the key players in the ongoing crisis, has also listed ending the SoO pact as one of its main demands to the government.

Considering this, the Manipur state assembly on February 29 “unanimously resolved” to press upon the Center to abrogate the Tripartite Agreement for Suspension of Operations with the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United People’s Front (UPF). The tripartite agreement between the rebel groups, the centre, and the state government was signed in 2008, while political dialogue was initiated later in 2016.

This SOO agreement is being renewed, or rather extended, periodically. The state assembly resolution was taken after the 50 legislators deliberated upon the “excesses and atrocities” allegedly committed by the Kuki-Zo underground groups. It may be noted here that the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs could not attend the state assembly due to the prevailing situation. They are unable to be present physically as all the Kuki-Zo communities, including the MLAs, have fled Imphal due to the violence. One of the MLAs, V. Valte, representing the Churachandpur assembly constituency, was attacked and severely injured, leaving him paralyzed.

In response to the assembly resolution in their absence, the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs vehemently condemned the decision, citing prejudice and bias against the people they represented. Expressing their dissent and disapproval of the resolution, which they deemed one-sided and reflective of a myopic view, the Kuki-Zo legislators asserted that the 2008 Tripartite Agreement has significantly reduced violence in Manipur, particularly in the hill tribal districts, and that a robust mechanism, the Joint Monitoring Group (JMG), is overseeing adherence to the agreement’s ground rules. Questioning the basis of the state assembly’s resolution, the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs asked if the assembly was informed of any report or observations by the Joint Monitoring Group.

The Kuki-Zo MLAs maintained that assembly resolutions are driven by animosity and hatred towards their community rather than factual assessments of the situation. It may be recalled that in early 2023, Biren and his cabinet announced that the state government decided to withdraw from being a party to the Tripartite SoO agreement with KNO and the UPF because the rebel group leadership and cadres were involved in the drug trade and the business of poppy cultivation.

Now that Manipur is undergoing a crisis with violent conflict between the Meiteis and the Kuki-Zo, the Biren Singh-led Manipur government decided that the SoO agreement must be abrogated to “bring normalcy and peace to Manipur.” Whether the state government’s withdrawal in 2023 is being accepted or approved is unknown—at least in public. It also remains to be seen if the recently concluded state assembly’s resolution to abrogate the SoO agreement is being considered by the central government.

Ever since it came to power in 2014 in Delhi and 2017 in Manipur, the BJP-led government has made attempts to bring the rebel groups to a negotiating table and has promised to take the dialogue to a logical conclusion. The present government in many ways, expressed their desire to end insurgency and bring the rebel groups into mainstream society. Or so it seems.

Back in 2017, in the run-up to the state election, the then union home minister Rajnath Singh stated in his public address in Lamka (Churachandpur district) that the BJP government in the centre is committed to solving the political problems of the Kuki-Zo people. Seeking the public to vote for his party, the BJP senior leader said that if the BJP came to power, the party would expedite the process of political dialogue at the earliest.

It’s been more than six years now, and the “dialogue” process is still going on. Moreover, in the last state election in 2022, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said in his election pitch, “Give us five more years, we will talk with the armed groups,” and that “if voted to power, the BJP government will ensure that the Kuki- Zo youths no longer hold their guns and are part of mainstream society.” Emphasizing peace and development in the hilly areas of Manipur, Shah stated that laptops, corporate door keys, and bike keys would replace guns shortly.

Reportedly, the Kuki-Zo insurgent groups, who are now in political dialogue and are coming overground, have “supported and voted for the BJP” in the parliamentary and state elections. Those under the SoO groups had also exercised their franchise in parliamentary and state elections. Cadres of the KNO and UPF have been taking part in the electoral process, starting with the 2014 general election and subsequently the state elections. An estimated 2,000 cadres have been spread over 14 designated camps since the peace process began. Separate balloting for the cadres was arranged in the designated camps.

However, since the 2008 ceasefire was signed and political dialogue was initiated only in 2016 after eight long years, the talks did not progress much over the years. Until today, there has been no major development, at least in the public domain.

Looking back, before violence erupted last year, the past years have been relatively calm, with no reports of insurgent activities in the state. Moreover, AFSPA has been lifted in valley districts inhabited by Meiteis. Even though militant activities have come down considerably in hilly areas too, AFSPA has not been lifted in those parts of the state.

Unfortunately, the violence   that   erupted in May last year has been attributed to the involvement of these insurgent groups, the KNO and UPF, who are in the process of political talks. As it stands, the extension of the SoO agreement is yet to be signed. Until the time of writing this article, which is more than a week after the expiry of the SoO pact, which is February 29, there have been no reports of its extension or renewal.

It is believed that the central government is “buying” its own time with the “resolution to abrogate the agreement” coming from the Biren Singh-led state government, which is party to the tripartite agreement.

It is unlikely that the central government will agree to the state government’s resolution. But then, on the other hand, considering that Biren Singh has a free hand in the state, given the turn of events during the year, it may not come as a surprise if the central government re-thinks and succumbs to Biren’s demand, which according to some observers would be to the diktat of the Arambai Tengol.

In case the centre is considering washing its hands off, the question is: what could be the aftermath? Surely there will be reactions; in which direction it may turn out is something that one cannot fathom at the moment. One thing can be said: the relative calm in recent years or the unfortunate disturbance that turned the state into an abyss cannot be attributed to certain rebel groups alone. Knee-jerk reactions at this juncture are not the ideal alternative and not a solution to restore normalcy. Such actions and omissions will rather add more salt to the wounds that have already infected so deeply.