Bimol vs Biren? A Thought on the Upcoming Lok Sabha Election

It’s been more than ten months since N. Biren Singh’s government launched the state-sponsored ethnic cleansing campaign against the minority Kuki-Zo tribals on May 3, 2023. Yet, there is no respite as violence continues unabated. Even though gunfights between the two warring ethnic groups have subsided a little in the last few weeks thanks to the central forces reigning in the Meitei terrorists, including the Arambai Tenggols and the UNLF (Pambei faction) in the valley, tension continues to simmer.

However, though the ethnic war shows no sign of ending soon, the election mood began to appear in some corners of Imphal. Despite various Meitei pressure groups demanding to first end the current violence before initiating the process for elections, intending candidates and their workers have begun the groundwork. In fact, a few names have emerged on social media as probable candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha election.

As in the valley, the Naga areas in the hills have begun to feel the wind of democracy’s biggest festival from Ashoka Road with a few names emerging as intending candidates. Among the notable ones are Dr. S. Lorho Pfoze, the sitting MP, and Alfred Kangam Arthur, former MLA from Ukhrul AC. Whereas Dr. Lorho is an intending candidate of NPF, Alfred was proposed by MPCC (Congress) to the AICC.

However, unlike other years, the Kuki-Zo are forced to remain cautious due to the current ethnic violence as Biren and his cohort may do anything to sabotage any plan made by them. The Kuki Inpi Manipur, the apex body of the Kukis, recently resolved that a committee will study the current situation and decide what is best for the Kukis. This is necessary as the minority Kuki tribals are under severe existential threats from the dominant Meitei community and its government in Imphal.

As far as the Outer Manipur Parliamentary Constituency, which consists of all the 20 (twenty) Assembly Constituencies in the hills and 8 (eight) in the valley is concerned, it is unlikely that the Kukis and Nagas will have a fierce fight as in the previous Lok Sabha elections. Rather, they are likely to come together for a consensus candidate as both are facing similar threats from the dominant community. Alternatively, the Kukis and Nagas may go for a friendly contest if an election between candidates belonging to the two ethnic communities ever happens.

As such, what is interesting is how the election in the Inner Manipur Parliamentary Constituency will unfold. So far, there is no official candidate, but as per newspaper reports from Imphal, four names have been submitted by the state Congress (MPCC) to AICC. The names include the notorious Meitei Professor from JNU, Dr. A. Bimol Akoijam, who has been actively defending the position of the Meiteis since the current ethnic violence began in May last. On some occasions, he went too far in trying to save his community’s image that he ended up defending even the brutal beheading of David Thiek Hmar and one-sided reports made by media houses in Imphal which are owned by the Meiteis. In one of his speeches at Panjab University, he boldly said, “The media in Imphal being biased is understandable”, but added that “it is not acceptable.” He even published a self-sponsored research report titled “National Media and Manipur Mayhem” through an Imphal-based publisher in January 2024 in his attempt to portray the national media as biased towards the Kukis.

Seeing such a pseudo-academic filled with a communal mindset as a candidate of the second-largest party in the state will be interesting as his potential rival Mr. Biren is no less communal. However, the biggest obstacle for Dr. Bimol would be to handle the pressure from Arambai Tengol, a militia created by Mr. Biren and his cohorts, as all the elected Meitei Legislators, including the five Congress MLAs, have bowed in front of them and taken a vow!

The other names proposed by MPCC are Hareshwar Goswami, a senior leader of the party, Tombikanta (Retired IAS), and Advocate Bupendra Meetei. However, these three names are unlikely to make much impact even if they are given tickets by the AICC. So, Dr. Bimol seems to be the best choice for the grand old party.

For the ruling BJP, there is no official news about who should contest, but there are rumors being circulated on social media platforms. So we can only guess how the BJP is likely to fight this Lok Sabha election. First, the BJP is likely to focus on the Inner seat as the Outer seat is likely to see a fierce fight between the NPF (Dr. Lorho) and Congress (Alfred). Interestingly, these two Naga intending candidates are not only well qualified and popular among their own tribes but also have a strong support base among the Kukis as well.

Whereas Dr. Lorho considers the people of the whole Senapati-Kangpokpi areas as his own, Alfred is highly popular among the educated tribals for his wisdom and intellect. So, the BJP has little chance unless the Kuki-Zo voters decide to put up a candidate of their own.

Under these circumstances, a social media buzz doing the round is that the BJP may ask Mr. Biren to vacate his position and contest the Lok Sabha election. This is quite possible as the party had done successfully in Assam and Tripura to replace those unpopular Chief Ministers. In the case of Mr. Biren vacating his Chair, the party will not only find a strong candidate for the Inner seat but also provide a room for a graceful exit for this communal head of government who can only be compared with his counterpart in the western corner of India 32 years ago. Anyway, some names have already begun to pop up in the corridors of power that be to replace this notorious chief minister.

Looking at the current scenario, replicating Assam and Tripura could be the best option for the ruling party if it thinks of taking some steps to avoid embarrassing itself further. In that case, the current MP, Dr. Rajkumar Ranjan Singh may either be accommodated somewhere else as his absence in the Parliament wouldn’t do any harm to the party. In fact, his contribution as the MP and Minister of State (for External Affairs and Education) had done little good to the party and the nation!

For the other intending candidates from Imphal such as Rajkumar Somendro @KAIKU and Maheshwar Thounaojam, the less said the better. Both of them were popular actors in the Manipuri film industry, but these two clowns are unlikely to make any impact as far as the Lok Sabha election is concerned.