Despite Dreaming of Winning Prospets,BJP is on the verge of Extinction from Manipur

The ongoing Manipur mayhem arising out of hatred and prejudices against the minority Kuki community by the current dispensation and the inability of BJP- led Governments at the Centre and States to contain the violence would greatly affect the BJP’s winning prospects in the upcoming 18th Lok Sabha Elections in the two parliamentary seats of Manipur.

The State has been witnessing a spate of violence since the state-sponsored ethnic cleansing pogrom began on May 3, 2023 on the minority Kuki community by the majority Meiteis. The ethnic clash had erupted between two ethnic groups in the state in the aftermath of the tribals’ “Solidarity Peaceful March” against the Manipur High Court’s ordered directing the state government to send a recommendation to the central government on the demand for a Scheduled Tribe status by the Meitei community.

The ensuing ethnic pogrom has caused hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries including a BJP MLA belonging to the Kuki-Zo community, who was also attacked and severely injured by the radicalised Meitei mob. The violence has also caused more than 300 Churches vandalised or torched, 5000 houses burnt down and the displacement of over 50,000 people, who have had to shift to other states to escape the violence.

Despite the devastating and unprecedented riots against the minority Kuki community taking place for more than 10 months until now, the double- engine governments of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still gave a step-motherly treatment to the woes and cries of the affected people. The violent situation is still tense and not respite seen in the near future. It is clear that the so-called “double- engine” BJP government has failed the people of Manipur.

In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP failed to win a majority. However, with political and financial aid from Delhi, the party cobbled together an artificial majority and ruled for five years. In the 2022 assembly elections, the BJP used its usual tactics — of division — to manage the comfortable numbers. In the ensuing 18th Lok Sabha elections, there is an imminent collapse of the national party both in the tribal hill areas, particularly among the Kuki community, and the valley areas dominated by the Meiteis.

Failing to find its own probable candidate for the Outer Manipur Parliamentary Constituency, the BJP had extended its regional alliance partner- the Naga People’s Front (NPF). After much limbo over ticket distribution, the Party chose a State’s Cabinet Minister, Th. Bashanta Singh who has little prospect of winning the Inner Manipur Parliamentary seat. The current trend shows the BJP on the verge of extinction both in Manipur hills and valley as the people accused the “double-engine” governments sole responsible for the mess and chaos in the State.

However, the Party’s National Spokesperson Shazia Ilmi has reportedly said the current situation in Manipur is unlikely to affect the Bharatiya Janata Party’s winning prospects in the Northeast in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. “Even if you look at the previous elections, BJP has done very well,” she said while further accusing critics of politicising the issue for vote-bank politics.

“When you politicise every issue and just not see the real intent of what the party is doing and confuse judicial decisions and politicise them only because of vote-bank politics, it’s very unfair,” Ilmi stated, while speaking in the Guwahati podcast, hosted by GPlus CEO Siddharth Bedu Verma.

Time will tell whether the BJP wrests control over the Inner Parliamentary seat and its alliance partner NPF wins the ST reserved seat in Outer Manipur. The current wave, however, speaks otherwise.

Notably, the Supreme Court of India had stated earlier that the state underwent “absolute breakdown of the constitutional machinery,” even as the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi was widely criticized by opponents for his silence on the situation.