How Will the Kukis Vote in the Forthcoming 18th Lok Sabha Election?

The forthcoming Lok Sabha election will be held in Manipur under extraordinary circumstances due to the state-sponsored ethnic violence that has plagued the state since May 3, 2023. In more than ten months, the state government has done literally nothing to diffuse the tension between the two warring communities. Even the third party, the Nagas, continue to maintain their “neutral” position with an aim to reap maximum political benefits, including in this Lok Sabha election.

For the Kukis, it is a test of their strength whether they will be able to survive such an ethnic cleansing pogrom, or surrender to the majoritarian state whose sole intention is to annihilate the minority communities and usurp their lands and properties.

Under such circumstances, it is imperative for the minority Kukis to take extreme care in deciding whom to vote for, as their existence as a community will largely depend on the outcome of this election.

So far, the intending candidates from the Kuki community have listened to the advisory issued by top Kuki bodies such as the Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM) not to contest the election. Similar advisory was also issued by the Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF). This already shows that the Kukis are not only extra cautious but also united in their stance.

There have also been calls for total boycott of the election by some lesser-known organisations including the Women Associations but the same has not yet been announced by the top civil bodies. So far, the top Kuki-Zo bodies such as KIM and ITLF do not make any clear advisory whether the voter should abstain from voting.

As of now, we can only guess how the Kukis will vote in this election although a directive is expected from the unified command or Joint Inpis of the apex CSOs soon. As for today, let us see the four candidates who all belong to the Naga tribes – two from Tangkhul, and one each from Liangmei and Poumai tribes.

1. KACHUI TIMOTHY ZIMIK: Mr. Kachui Timothy Zimik of Naga People’s Front (NPF), is a retired IRS officer and a wealthy man. He is the richest among the four candidates. As the choice of the Naga civil bodies including the United Naga Council (UNC), Tangkhul organisations, and Tamenglong village organisations, he is the forerunner to be the next Member of Parliament from Outer Manipur.

Considering the current ethnic dynamics, the NPF candidate is likely to get support from various quarters including the Meitei and Kuki communities. There are already rumours doing the round among social media users that some Kuki groups are seriously considering supporting Mr. Zimik.

It is also highly possible that the NPF will get strong support from parts of Lamka as the party enjoys a considerable support in the past, particularly in 2019. However, this is unlikely among the Kuki commoners for they see the NPF as representing the voice of the NSCN-IM, an armed organisation responsible for the unfortunate ethnic conflict in the 1990s.

In such a scenario, the biggest strength of the NPF lies not from the support of the BJP but the later’s inability to put up a candidate in the Outer Manipur. NPF being an ally of the ruling BJP, candidates from both the two would have put the Congress in a better position. So, Mr Biren Singh’s abject failure in governance comes as a blessing in disguise for its ally, NPF and Mr Zimik.

2. ALFRED KANNGAM S. ARTHUR: Mr. Alfred Kanngam S. Arthur of the Congress party is also expected to be a strong contender for the forthcoming Lok Sabha election from Outer Manipur. Mr. Alfred, a former Congress MLA from Ukhrul AC, is a highly respected politician from the state for his statesmanship. His stature as a statesman was well recognised during his five year tenure as an Opposition MLA (2017-2022) not only among the tribals but the whole state of Manipur and even beyond. His role in drafting the ADC Bill, 2021, was also appreciated by one and all though some sections from the dominant Meitei community have mistakenly taken it as a Bill to disintegrate the state.

Moreover, Mr. Alfred also played a big role in winning a legal case in favour of the Manipur University Tribal Students’ Union (MUTSU) in the honourable Supreme Court on reservation matter. An appeal which was filed by a section of ill-informed Meiteis against the tribals’ constitutional rights was given a befitting end with the help of Mr. Alfred and his legal team in 2021-22.

As an experienced politician and an astute statesman, Mr. Alfred is likely to find favour in the eyes of not only his own community but also a large section of the Kukis as well as the Meiteis. Anybody who wants a leader who will boldly represent the voice of the marginalised tribals in the state will think twice before choosing a candidate other than Mr. Alfred.

There are also rumours bustling in social media that intellectuals and society leaders among the Kukis are deliberating on whether to support the Congress candidate or not as his counterpart in the valley is largely seen as a communal academic who thinks the Meiteis alone own the state. His role in adding fuel to fire since day one of the current ethnic violence is something the Kukis can’t ignore.

However, there are corners who refuse to see the two on party-lines. To them, the hills and valley being two separate entities, and that the tribal voters must choose Mr. Alfred for his statesmanship, and not based on who his counterpart is from Inner Manipur. For many, particularly among the intellectuals, he is the favourite to represent Outer Manipur.

3. S KHO JOHN: Mr. S. Kho John, an Independent candidate from Senapati district, was a household name for many particularly among the tribals as a former President of UNC. One very important advantage Mr. John has is his experience in social service in this regard. The UNC being the apex socio-political body of the Nagas of Manipur, he is quite popular among the Naga tribes of Manipur. Since Kangpokpi is adjacent to Senapati, he is also equally popular in this neighbouring district which was granted recognition as a separate district in 2016.

It may be noted that, Mr. John was quite reasonable in dealing with the other major ethnic communities, particularly the fellow Kuki tribals. In other words, he was much more rational than some of his predecessors who were quite communal/ exclusivist in maintaining inter-ethnic relationship Moreover, Mr. John is also by nature straight forward, a common character found in both the Kukis and tribes of Senapati. This similar trait can be exploited to his advantage if he wants favour from the Kukis.

Similarly, Mr. John is also known to be a close associate of Mr. Biren Singh. He was even asked to lead a Peace Committee supposedly sponsored by the latter though the mission failed to yield any tangible outcome. In other words, his close proximity with the Meitei chief minister will be of great help if he is able to play a diplomatic game. Here, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Biren is known for supporting one candidate openly and another secretly.

4. DR. ALYSON ABONMAI: Have you ever imagined that Dr. Alyson Abonmai, another Independent candidate from Konsakhul village, Kangpokpi district, has a theological background? Yes, he was awarded the Degree of Doctor of Ministry in 2017 by Bethany Baptist Bible College & Seminary, Bangalore. He is not just a theologian, but also an educationist who works primarily as a school principal and a social worker.

However, considering his experience and comparative less popularity, he is unlikely to find favour from the Naga masses though he may get support from his district as well as the Zeliangrong communities. His strength will also come from the proximity he created between his own village and the Meitei community, but the same will likely distract the Kuki voters from favouring him.

There are also rumours that he is under pressure from the Naga bodies to withdraw his candidature which shows the lack of support he enjoys from the Naga community.

From the above analysis, it is likely that the Kuki voters will have a tough time in choosing from one of the four Naga candidates. It is also expected that the apex bodies of the Kukis might already have someone in mind even though they are yet to declare his name. So, whoever is the proposed candidate, the Kukis are likely to decide who will be the Member of Parliament from the Outer Manipur Parliamentary Constituency this time.