Rising Insurgency in Imphal Valley and Governance Breakdown in Manipur

Since May 3, 2023, Manipur has been embroiled in an escalating conflict marked by the resurgence of militant groups and a significant breakdown in governance. Radical Meitei groups like Arambai Tenggol and Meitei Leepun have gained considerable influence, leading to heightened ethnic tensions and violence. The situation has deteriorated to the point where militants openly challenge the Indian Army, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of counterinsurgency efforts in the region.

The state government, condemned by various communities and international observers, refuses to step down, indicating a lack of commitment to restoring peace. The central government has also refrained from taking decisive action against the state leadership or replacing the current Chief Minister of half Manipur, who now governs only a part of 650 Square Miles Manipur—the Valley.

There is ample evidence suggesting the Manipur government has supported state outlaws like the UNLF, PLA, KYKL, and PREPAK throughout this conflict. A recent example is when Meitei militants and the state- backed militia, Arambai Tenggol, confronted central security forces to breach the buffer zone and attack

Kuki village volunteers. Such actions reveal a state with a clear agenda to target a specific community deemed a threat. A government that supports these actions cannot be considered legitimate.

The relaxation of AFSPA in the Valley has led to a complete breakdown of law and order. Central security forces, tasked with maintaining peace, have been rendered ineffective under the leadership of Chief Minister of 650 Square Miles N. Biren Singh, who has extensive backing from his personal militia, the Arambai Tenggol. This militia, armed with sophisticated weapons, patrols the streets, instilling fear among the Valley’s Meitei populace. The Chief Minister, who swore to protect the people, has now become a threat to their safety.

Counter-insurgency Efforts Undermined

The withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) from the Imphal Valley has been a pivotal factor in the current crisis. AFSPA, which grants special powers to the military in “disturbed areas,” had been instrumental in maintaining law and order. Its withdrawal has hampered the Indian Army’s ability to act decisively against insurgents, leading to a perceived power vacuum that militants have exploited. Nowhere in India have anyone witnessed the state sponsored terrorists in open confrontation with the Indian Army. The resurgence of Meitei Terrorists groups backed up the Meitei govt poses a grave danger to India’s National Security.

State Government Complicity and InactionThe Manipur state government’s alleged support for insurgent groups further complicates the situation. Reports suggest that the government has tacitly supported groups like the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), and People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK). This complicity not only undermines counterinsurgency efforts but also emboldens militants to operate with impunity. The central government’s reluctance to intervene and replace the current state leadership exacerbates the problem, indicating a political paralysis that is detrimental to restoring peace.

Ethnic Tensions and Humanitarian Crisis

Ethnic tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities have reached alarming levels, resulting in the displacement of approximately 40,000 Kukis from Imphal. The violence, reportedly orchestrated by state-backed militias, has led to accusations of ethnic cleansing and has deepened the social and political divide. In the Imphal valley, the absence of state governance is stark, further highlighting the fragmented nature of authority in Manipur.

Militia Influence and National Security Threats

The rise of militias like Arambai Tenggol, allegedly armed with sophisticated weapons, poses a grave threat to national security. These militias operate with apparent support from the state government, patrolling streets and instilling fear among the populace. The inability of central security forces to effectively counter these groups underscores the urgent need for a reassessment of the security strategy in Manipur.

Path Forward:

Strategic Interventions Required Addressing the crisis in Manipur requires a multifaceted approach:

Re-imposition of AFSPA in Manipur Valley:

To restore the authority of security forces and ensure effective counterinsurgency operations. Political Intervention: Stronger intervention from the central government, including potential leadership changes in the state government, to address alleged complicity and restore governance. Comprehensive Security Measures: A coordinated strategy combining military, political, and socio- economic measures to stabilize the region.

Conclusion

The situation in Manipur is a severe test of India’s internal security mechanisms and governance capabilities. Without decisive action, the state risks further violence and instability, potentially escalating into a conflict akin to those in other insurgency-affected regions of India. The central and state governments must act swiftly and decisively to restore order and address the root causes of this crisis.